I've been red hot and feel like sharing

[JakeT.]

Of course I'll probably lose now that I'm posting. For what it's worth, been like 9-1 this week at tennis. Hit Frederico Gil at 2/1 or so. Got Giraldo as an underdog against Bellucci, then bet Ferrer to beat Giraldo. Just haven't been able to lose... (other than my bet on Kohlshreiber).

Anyway, I think David Nalbandian will take out David Ferrer in straight sets tonight. He's about a -150 favorite. Better hard court player, Ferrer has been rusty this tournament, and Nalbandian has beaten him the last 3 times, all on hard court (Ferrer holds a 6-5 edge in head-to-head but 4 wins were on clay).

Ferrer is a great player but he's not on his surface and hasn't had much luck against Nalbandian. On top of that, he's rusty and hasn't been as dominant as he should be. Guy looks like he just took too much time off while Nalbandian has been sharp.

Should be -250 or so but Ferrer's top 5 ranking is keeping the odds down.

 

[JakeT.]

Also leaning toward Gilles Simon at -119 against Viktor Troicki. He's beaten Troicki all 4 times they've met and the underdog made a ton of unforced errors in his last match. Simon doesn't have the serve to hurt Troicki but I think our guy's ability to go baseline-to-baseline will fluster Troicki and force him into even more unforced errors if he hasn't cleaned up his game. The only things that are making me a little hesitant to pull the trigger are Troicki's ability to get hot with his serve and the odds being so low. Troicki also blames the errors on the wind for what its worth.

 

[JakeT.]

Ahh screw it. Nalbandian -158, Simon -119 are my plays. Normally I play mostly dogs but not tonight.

 

[JakeT.]

Nalbandian played like absolute shit. No clue what was wrong with him.

 

[JakeT.]

At least Simon won in straight sets.

 

[JakeT.]

Malisse at -240 should win in straight sets over Montanes. Montanes has always been shit on the hard court and he's never beaten Malisse. On top of that, Montanes is coming off a grueling 5-set win yesterday and struggled to beat Dennis Brown. Brown couldn't hold Malisse's jock at this stage in his career and I'm looking for 6-2, 6-4, 6-3. Should be an easy win.

 

[mpn]

Anything you like that's left for tonight Jake? I feel the urge to have big action on a random tennis match.

 

[JakeT.]

Anything you like that's left for tonight Jake? I feel the urge to have big action on a random tennis match.

Give me a little bit to check out some stuff. Ten more minutes of Angry Birds and I'll get started.

 

[JakeT.]

Taking a look now. PS, Malisse up 6-4, 4-0.

 

[JakeT.]

Still looking. Maybe I'll bet Grigor Dimitrov at about 5/2. Not 100% sold on the youngster just yet. Going to look at another match now.

 

[JakeT.]

Might make another small play on Mahut at 9/2. Nothing really standing out.

 

[JakeT.]

Feliciano Lopez looks okay at -145. He's playing like shit lately but is a good player and has been losing to guys with big serves. Tomic can get hot but he's no Andy Roddick. Still, once again, not a strong bet or anything. Just a lean at this stage.

 

[JakeT.]

Malisse won the 2nd set 6-0 and is up 3-0 in the 3rd. Montanes is getting tired. Should be an easy winner from here on out.

 

[JakeT.]

Isner at +110 looks decent against Stepanek. He's a better hard court player but Stepanek is tough to ace so I'm a little worried since that is such a big part of Isner's game.

 

[JakeT.]

Santiago Giraldo is my favorite Australian Open bet out of the 5 or 6 I've looked at. It's not till tomorrow afternoon though. He's at +173 against Marin Cilic. Cilic is a strong hard court player and beat Giraldo fairly easily about a year ago. That being said, Cilic is not playing well the last couple months and Giraldo is finally realizing his potential. Kid is only 23 and has beaten strong hard court players recently. I think this is a toss up.

 

[JakeT.]

Malisse just won 6-4, 6-0, 6-1. Easy money.

 

[atlantic10]

Well done Jake.

 

[JakeT.]

Well done Jake.

Thank ya kindly.

Kicking myself for not taking Mahut. I spaced it. He lost a hard fought 1st set, got beat up in the 2nd, easily took the 3rd, and is now looking very good in the 4th. Nothing for certain, but I'll take a +450 in this situation any day of the week.

 

[yurnero]

jake you sure seem to know your tennis, keep up posting plays please

 

[JakeT.]

I think Robin Haase can upset Andy Roddick tonight. Youngster is +539 or +6 games at -115. Trying to figure out which I want to bet. Haase sat out last year with an injury but is a big hitter with a ton of skill. He's still a bit raw but he appears to be in strong form. Haase is 1-1 against John Isner over the last few months so I think he'll be able to handle Roddick's serve decently enough. He's a prospect but Roddick has been known to slip up at times. I'll try to decide how I want to bet this shortly.